METR finds AI task horizons doubling about every seven months
The length of task frontier agents complete half the time has doubled roughly every seven months for six years. Claude 3.7 Sonnet is measured at about an hour.
Models succeed almost always on tasks that take humans under four minutes and rarely on tasks over four hours. The 50% crossover point is the “time horizon”. Extrapolated, the doubling trend implies week-long autonomous work within a few years. The Index does not extrapolate: each horizon milestone moves only when a measured point estimate crosses it.
Index treatment. Autonomous task horizon of one hour moves to 0.75.