AI 2027 scenario forecasts superintelligence by end of 2027
A detailed scenario from Daniel Kokotajlo and co-authors runs from superhuman coders in early 2027 to artificial superintelligence by December.
The authors present 2027 as the scenario’s modal year, not their median, and have since moved their own medians later. In September 2026 Kokotajlo told a Senate panel he put “about 50% chance by the end of 2028” on AI automating AI research.
Index treatment. None. Forecasts are context; they never move the Index.